The effect of currency exchange on language industry growth

货币兑换对语言产业增长的影响

2022-09-27 12:44 Nimdzi Insights

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Article by Sarah Hickey. It's earnings season and several publicly traded companies from the Nimdzi 100 — our ranking of the 100 largest language service providers (LSPs) in the world — have released their half-year results for 2022. We at Nimdzi collected, normalized, and analyzed the data in an effort to see how 2022 is advancing for the language industry and to check if our growth projections are panning out. Half year results for the financial year 2022 (FY) fiscal year, figures for the latest financial half year (verified with financial reports); (c) calculation based on public financial records The impact of exchange rates: A direct comparison The majority of the publicly traded companies on our list are reporting growth and profits in their half year reports and messages to the investors — and it’s true. When we look at the financial statements in the companies’ reporting currencies, it looks like 2022 is shaping up to be a good year. Eight out of the ten companies on our list are reporting positive growth and for five of those companies that growth is more than 25 percent. Only one company saw a decrease and one company’s growth stagnated. On average, companies grew by 30.4 percent — an impressive figure. However, these numbers only tell half the story. When we create the Nimdzi 100 and estimate the size and growth of the market, much like other industries, we use the US dollar as a common denominator. So, when we convert the half-year results in our table from the companies’ reporting currencies to USD, the results look quite different. While the number of companies that grew remains the same, only three companies achieved growth of 25 percent or higher and for two companies revenues declined. In USD, the ten companies on our list had an average growth of 24.9 percent. This is still a solid result. The difference of 5.5 percent between the growth averages comes down to currency fluctuations. Impact of exchange rates on average growth *Growth figures based on the results of the companies listed in the table above This is particularly noticeable for the businesses based in Japan and the UK but also those reporting in EUR, AUD, and NZD are impacted. This is not surprising considering news of both a strong dollar and weakened world currencies have been making the headlines lately. At the time of writing, in late September 2022, the Japanese Yen reached its lowest level against the US dollar in almost a quarter of a century and the British Pound has fallen to an all-time low against the USD as a response to the government’s announcement of tax cuts. To illustrate, the average exchange rate for GBP to USD still stood at 1.34 for the period we are reporting on in our analysis, whereas this week, the British Pound has almost reached parity with the US dollar. What this means is that companies that have a significant amount of revenue in USD will see a positive impact on their growth figures in local currency in the second half of the year. Source: Statista What the price of a Big Mac tells us about the economy The impact of the latest currency fluctuations can also be seen in the Big Mac Index, which is based on the theory of purchasing power parity (PPP). The Big Mac Index was first introduced by the Economist in 1986 as a lighthearted way to illustrate whether currencies are at their correct level (versus being over- or undervalued) and the impact currency fluctuations have on the prices the final consumers have to pay. However, it has stuck around and is now known as one of the most cited and reliable sources for comparing global standards. Below are two examples of the Big Mac Index at different points in time. The first image shows the price of a Big Mac in different countries based on data from January 2020, whereas the second image contains data from January 2022. Taking the US price for a Big Mac as the baseline, the index shows the purchasing power of the different currencies in relation to the USD. Source: Statista, January 2020 Source: theedgemarkets, January 2022 What stands out right away is that the Swiss Franc was and remains the country in which a Big Mac is the most expensive (over one dollar more than in the US), illustrating the fact that currently, the Swiss Franc is the most powerful currency in the world. In contrast, in both versions of the index, a Big Mac costs more than one dollar less in the UK than in the US, and in Japan, it’s even more than two dollars cheaper. If we examine the data more closely we can see the development of the exchange rates over time. For instance, in January 2020, the exact price difference between a Big Mac in the US and a Big Mac in the UK was USD 1.26, whereas in January 2022 the difference was only USD 1.07. Looking at the latest Big Mac Index data published by the Economist in July 2022, the difference between a Big Mac in the US and a Big Mac in the UK further decreased to USD 0.7, highlighting the fact that the British Pound continues to depreciate against the US dollar. The language industry is growing — but how much exactly? So what does all of this mean for the language services industry? When we published the last Nimdzi 100, in March 2022, we estimated that the industry reached USD 60.5 billion in 2021 and should continue to grow at an annual compounded growth rate (CAGR) of 7.0 percent. If we now consider the combined revenues of the companies in our list published for the first half of 2022 and compare those to the combined revenues of the same companies for the same period in 2021, those combined revenues grew by 11.8 percent year over year. What this tells us is that although currency fluctuations have had an impact on the results of the language services industry in the first half of the year, Nimdzi's growth projection is still on track. We will be monitoring results and the evolving impact of currency exchange and inflation in the language industry, but still expect the net result to be strong growth for the sector as a whole. Methodology This article presents a snapshot of the industry at this point in time, in late September 2022. The data presented are based on the following methodology: We are only considering publicly traded companies from the latest Nimdzi 100, published in March 2022. However, not all of the publicly traded companies from the latest Nimdzi 100 have released their half-year results at this point in time. The rank listed in the table refers to the rank the company obtained in the latest Nimdzi 100, in March 2022. This is not a new ranking. All revenue figures are converted to USD. We are using the average exchange rate to USD for the specific reporting period of the half-year results listed for each company. To show the impact of currency exchange rates, growth was calculated twice — once in USD and once in the companies’ reporting currencies, which are listed in the table as well. How companies report their figures and when varies greatly. As a matter of transparency, we are listing the end of the half-year period for each company as well as how we arrived at the figures presented in the table. All figures are based on the companies’ financial records.
莎拉·希基的文章。 现在是财报季,来自Nimdzi 100的几家上市公司发布了2022年半年业绩。Nimdzi 100是我们对全球100家最大语言服务提供商的排名。我们在Nimdzi收集、标准化和分析数据,以努力了解2022年语言行业的进展情况,并检查我们的增长预测是否成功。 2022财政年度半年业绩 (FY)财政年度,最近一个财政半年的数字(与财务报告核实);(c)根据公共财务记录计算 汇率的影响:直接比较 我们名单上的大多数上市公司都在半年报告中报告了增长和利润,并向投资者传达了信息--这是真的。当我们以公司的报告货币来看财务报表时,看起来2022年将是一个好的一年。我们名单上的十家公司中有八家报告正增长,其中五家公司的增长超过25%。只有1家公司出现减少,1家公司增长停滞。平均而言,企业增长了30.4%,这是一个令人印象深刻的数字。 然而,这些数字只说明了事情的一半。当我们创建尼姆齐100并估计市场的规模和增长时,就像其他行业一样,我们使用美国元作为一个共同的分母。因此,当我们将表中的半年业绩从公司的报告货币转换为美元时,结果看起来很不一样。虽然增长的公司数量保持不变,但只有三家公司实现了25%或更高的增长,两家公司的收入下降。以美元计算,我们榜单上的十家公司平均增长率为24.9%。这仍然是一个坚实的结果。平均增长率之间5.5%的差异可以归结为货币波动。 汇率对平均增长的影响 *按上表所列公司业绩计算的增长数字 这对于总部设在日本和英国的企业尤其明显,但那些以欧元、澳元和新西兰元报告的企业也受到影响。考虑到美元走强和世界货币走弱的消息最近一直是头条新闻,这并不奇怪。在撰写本报告时,2022年9月下旬,日元兑港元汇率达到近四分之一世纪以来的最低水平,英镑兑美元汇率跌至历史低点,作为对政府宣布减税的回应。 例如,在我们的分析报告所述期间,英镑对美元的平均汇率仍为1.34,而本周英镑与美国元几乎达到平价。这意味着,那些以美元计有大量收入的公司将在下半年看到对其以本币计的增长数字的积极影响。 资料来源:Statista 巨无霸汉堡的价格告诉我们经济状况 最新货币波动的影响也可以在巨无霸指数中看到,该指数基于购买力平价(PPP)理论。巨无霸指数最早由《经济学人》于1986年推出,作为一种轻松的方式,用来说明货币是否处于正确的水平(相对于被高估或低估),以及货币波动对最终消费者必须支付的价格的影响。然而,它一直存在,现在被认为是比较全球标准的最被引用和最可靠的来源之一。 下面是巨无霸指数在不同时间点的两个例子。第一张图片显示了一个巨无霸在不同国家的价格,基于2020年1月的数据,而第二张图片包含了2022年1月的数据。该指数以巨无霸汉堡的美国价格为基准,显示了不同货币对美元的购买力。 来源:Statista,2020年1月 资料来源:theedgemarkets,2022年1月 现在最引人注目的是,瑞士法郎过去和现在都是巨无霸汉堡最贵的国家(比美国高出一美元多),这说明了瑞士法郎目前是世界上最强大的货币。相比之下,在两个版本的指数中,一个巨无霸在英国比在美国便宜一美元多,在日本甚至便宜两美元多。 如果我们更仔细地研究这些数据,我们可以看到汇率随时间的发展。例如,2020年1月,美国的巨无霸和英国的巨无霸之间的确切价差为1.26美元,而2022年1月的价差仅为1.07美元。再看英国《经济学人》2022年7月公布的最新巨无霸指数数据,美国一个巨无霸与英国一个巨无霸的差价进一步缩小至0.7美元,凸显英镑兑美国元持续贬值的事实。 语言产业正在增长--但具体增长了多少? 那么,所有这些对语言服务行业意味着什么呢? 当我们在2022年3月发布最后一份Nimdzi 100时,我们估计该行业在2021年达到605亿美元,并将继续以7.0%的年复合增长率(CAGR)增长。如果我们现在考虑我们公布的2022年上半年名单中公司的合并收入,并将其与2021年同期相同公司的合并收入进行比较,这些合并收入同比增长11.8%。 这告诉我们,尽管货币波动对语言服务行业上半年的业绩产生了影响,但Nimdzi的增长预测仍在正轨上。我们将监测结果以及汇率和通货膨胀对语言行业的影响,但仍预计最终结果将是整个行业的强劲增长。 方法论 本文介绍了2022年9月下旬这个时间点的行业快照。所提供的数据以下列方法为基础: 我们只考虑2022年3月发布的最新Nimdzi 100中的公开交易公司。然而,并非所有最新的Nimdzi 100上市公司都在此时发布了半年业绩。 表中所列的排名是指该公司在2022年3月最新的Nimdzi 100中获得的排名。这不是一个新的排名。 所有收入数字都换算成美元。 我们对每家公司所列的半年业绩的具体报告期使用的是对美元的平均汇率。 为了显示货币汇率的影响,增长被计算了两次--一次以美元计算,一次以公司的报告货币计算,这两种货币也在表中列出。 公司如何报告他们的数据以及何时报告差异很大。为了透明起见,我们列出了每个公司半年期的结束时间,以及我们如何得出表中所示的数字。 所有数字都是基于公司的财务记录。

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