The Fastest Growing Languages in the World

世界上发展最快的语言

2021-06-05 06:50 Morningside

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I love playing around with data. Languages are fascinating in this respect, as you can study everything from speaker numbers (both native and total) to the size and shape of language family trees. Most recently, I’ve been crunching some numbers to look at growing languages. More specifically, the fastest growing languages in the world. As with all things data-based, there are various ways to approach this. Calculating the speed at which the language landscape has changed over the past century for example, will likely produce different results in terms of the fastest growing languages than calculating it over the past 20 years. Of course, there are regional variations at play. For example, Spanish is increasingly important in the United States because of localised migration patterns between Latin America and the States. But does that mean that the Spanish language is growing or simply that Spanish speakers are moving from one location to another? I’m going to pick all of this apart below and look at growing languages from a couple of different perspectives. The aim is, hopefully, to uncover a single winner that we can crown the world’s fastest growing language. Shall we get started? The Increasing Population and the Growth of Native and Second Language Speakers The Earth’s population is increasing at an annual rate of 1.1%, according to data from the World Bank. It reached 7.8 billion in 2020. That growth rate has been slowing for many years, declining steadily from 2.1% in 1970 to the current rate of 1.1%. However, the population continues to increase, albeit at a slower pace. This is one reason why languages are growing. Quite simply, there are more people alive to speak them. In 1970, the global population totalled 3.7 billion; it has more than doubled since then. An increase of that scale would lead to some fast-growing languages even if every person only spoke one tongue. Yet some 43% of the global population is bilingual (and 13% is trilingual), which further contributes to the rate at which languages are growing. What this doesn’t mean is that all languages are growing at the same rate. Quite the opposite. Everything from political tensions to religious ideologies to technology can impact the pace at which languages grow. Some are purposefully repressed, while others are simply dying out as the world moves on too fast for us to preserve them. At the same time, other languages are seeing their speaker numbers increase hugely, as a handful of these ‘major’ tongues grow to provide lingua francas for vast geographic regions. Predictions on the Growth of the Languages of the World in the Next Decades Before we dive deep into the data to discover the fastest growing language in the world, let’s take a look at a few projections. What will be the most spoken language in 2050? Or in 2100? Well, we can’t accurately predict what will happen to impact growing languages over the coming decades. There are just too many variables. What we can do, though, is extrapolate some of the data that we’ve already got, from demographics to economic figures. Doing this using the engco model of language forecasting, results in a prediction that the top five languages in 2050 will be Chinese, Spanish, English, Hindi-Urdu and Arabic. However, a study by investment bank Natixis in 2014 projected that the world’s most spoken language by 2050 would be French, based largely on its use in Africa. A 15-year-long study by linguist Ulrich Ammon, meanwhile, suggested that it will be English, Chinese, Spanish and French that bear watching closely over the coming years. On top of that, the Washington Post’s data analysis indicates that the business world will see Hindi, Bengali, Urdu and Indonesian all increase in importance, along with Spanish, Portuguese, Arabic and Russian. Looking further ahead, it seems likely – though anything is possible in a span of 79 years, particularly with technology developing at the pace that it is – that those languages that have come to dominate over the past century will continue to play an important role. Fast-forward to 2100 then, and we’re still likely to hear English, Mandarin, Spanish and Hindi being spoken around the globe. As to which of them will be the fastest languages in the world for growth, or even if it will be any of these languages at all, that’s somewhat harder to predict. 10 of the Fastest Growing Languages in the World So, what does the data say when it comes to working out which are the world’s fastest growing languages? That all depends on how we crunch the numbers. For example, is are the languages growing fastest in the world those that have increased the most in terms of their speaker numbers or those that are growing most rapidly in percentage terms? Let’s take a look at both calculations. English If we look at increases in speaker numbers, English is the fastest growing language. This is true whether we look over the past decade, the past 50 years or even the past 100 years. Between 2011 and 2021, the number of English speakers (note that I’m talking about total speaker numbers here, not just native speakers) increased from 1,054,696,408 to 1,300,569,350. That’s a rise of 245,872,942 in a single decade – far more than any other language. By way of comparison, the next closest contender was Chinese (Mandarin), which increased by 69,877,874 speakers over the same period. Hindi, meanwhile, grew by 64,684,736 speakers. Looking back over the past 50 years paints a very similar picture. English added 523,019,976 speakers between 1971 and 2021, while Chinese added 276,956,436 and Hindi 187,263,950. And the same is true of the entire last century. Between 1921 and 2021, English speakers around the world increased by 894,827,855 people, far out-stripping Chinese (which saw an increase of 551,162,240 speakers) and Hindi (which came in third with an increase of 349,660,815). In terms of speaker numbers, then, it’s clear that English is the fastest growing language over the past 100 years, rising from 405,741,495 in 1921 to 1,300,569,350 a century later. Portuguese Did you expect to see Portuguese topping a list of the world’s fastest growing languages? Spoken mainly in Brazil but also in Portugal, Mozambique, Angola and elsewhere, Portuguese has grown from 65,064,027 speakers in 1921 to 258,003,327 today. That works out as growth of 297% in speaker numbers over the past century. Considered by this metric, Portuguese has grown faster than English, Chinese, Hindi, Spanish, French, Modern Arabic, Bengali and Russian. Arabic Arabic deserves an honourable mention at this point. Though it hasn’t quite kept pace with Portuguese in terms of its growth rate, Modern Arabic has certainly come close. The language has grown from 74,157,626 speakers in 1921 to 279,200,980 a century later. That’s an increase of 276%. For comparison terms, English speakers have increased by 221% over the same period, Hindi speakers by 118%, German speakers by 115%, French speakers by 113%, Bengali speakers by 110% and Chinese speakers by 96%. Urdu When viewed in terms of its rate of increase, the fastest growing language over the past 50 years turns up a different result: Urdu. Urdu speaker numbers have risen from 112,717,278 people in 1971 to 219,737,807 people in 2021. That’s an increase of 95% – a growth rate which eclipses that of English, Chinese, Hindi, Spanish, French, Modern Arabic, Bengali, Russian, Portuguese, Indonesian, German and Japanese. Looked at over just the last decade, Urdu also emerges as the fastest growing language in the world. Its total speaker numbers increased by 39% between 2011 and 2021. Indonesian Called Bahasa Indonesia locally, Indonesian has also been one of the fastest growing languages in the world over the past 50 years. It has increased from 127,635,615 speakers in 1971 to 228,241,973 in 2021. That’s a growth rate of 79%, which makes Indonesian second only to Urdu in terms of the pace of its growth over the past half-century. The same is true over the past ten years. While Urdu grew by 39% in the decade to 2021, Indonesian came in second, with growth of 25%. Chinese English aside, which language has grown fastest over the past 10, 50 and 100 years in terms of speaker numbers? The answer for all three periods is Mandarin Chinese. It saw the second largest increase in speaker numbers (after English) between 2011 and 2021, with numbers growing by 69,877,874 people in a single decade – impressive stuff. Over the past 50 years, that figure rises to 276,956,436 speakers, while the past century has seen the number of Chinese speakers increase by 551,162,240, from 577,002,424 in 1921 to 1,128,164,664 in 2021. Hindi I feel that Hindi deserves a special mention here too, in terms of its growth over the last decade. In terms of speaker numbers, Hindi came very close to matching Chinese’s increase over the past then years. While the number of Chinese speakers increased by 69,877,874 between 2011 and 2021, the number of Hindi speakers increased by 64,684,736. In percentage terms, that means that Hindi grew faster than Chinese in the decade to 2021, at 11% and 7% respectively – though neither language came close to Urdu’s stellar 39% increase. Korean Another interesting contender for the title of fastest growing language is Korean. I’m including this for two reasons. Firstly, Duolingo’s first Global Language Report, covering the period from October 2019 to September 2020, reported that the fastest growing languages around the globe, based on its user data, were all Asian languages. Hindi, Korean and Japanese all featured strongly. The second reason for including Korean is its huge growth on the popular culture scene. K-pop has built up a following around the globe – and continues to do so at an astonishing pace. It is a driving factor behind the rapid growth of Korean language learning, as identified by the Duolingo news. It’s no coincidence that I flagged up Korean last year, as well, in my article on the 15 best languages to learn. If you didn’t catch it at the time, you can click the link below to read it now. Read more: 15 Best Languages to Learn in 2020 Spanish There are also plenty of fast-growing languages to be found at a regional level. Looking at the fastest growing languages in the US, for example, immediately puts Spanish in the spotlight. Spanish is increasingly important in the United States because Hispanics are the country’s fastest-growing demographic. Between 1980 and 2015, the number of Spanish speakers in the US nearly quadrupled, increasing from 11 million people to more than 41 million, and speaker numbers continue to rise. In percentage terms, the proportion of the US population that speaks Spanish has grown from 5% to 13% over the same period – hence it being crowned the fastest growing language in the US. French For growing languages at a regional level, French also deserves a mention. The language landscape of Africa is shifting to include an increasing number of French speakers. At present, around 44% of the world’s total French-speaking population lives in sub-Saharan Africa. However, that figure is set to rise significantly over the coming years, with some estimates projecting it will reach 85% by 2050. The Duolingo report I mentioned above also looked at the growth of French at a regional level, noting a significant increase in the number of French learners based in Canada over the past year. How is the Rate at Which the Global Language Landscape is Changing Relevant? The pace of change in the global language landscape has plenty of relevance. Businesses need to understand which languages to build their strategies around and why. They need to use localization services to tap into new markets in order to take advantage of all that globalization has to offer but before they can do so, they need to know which languages they will need. And while businesses are building up new audiences, individual learners are also being impacted by the shifting linguistic landscape. The growth of the English language, along with other ‘major’ languages and lingua francas across the world, means that many other languages are seeing their speaker numbers dwindle dangerously low. Some estimates point to as many as half of the world’s 7,000 or so currently spoken languages becoming extinct by 2100. Wrap Up I hope you’ve enjoyed this look at the world’s fastest growing languages. While the growth of English is widely acknowledged, I suspect that some of the languages that I’ve covered may have surprised you. To sum up, I’ve looked at: • The fastest growing languages by number of speakers over the past 10, 50 and 100 years • Growing languages in percentage terms over the same timeframes • The fastest growing languages by learner numbers • Some of the fastest languages expanding at a regional level Was your language included in this top 10? Or are you learning one of these fast-growing languages? Leave a comment below to share your thoughts.
我特别喜欢摆弄数据。在这方面,语言是令人着迷的,因为你可以研究从说话人数量(包括本地人和总人数)到语言家族树的大小和形状的所有东西。我最近一直在搜集一些数据来研究正在发展的语言。更确切地说,是世界上发展最快的语言。 与所有基于数据的事物一样,有多种方法来实现这一点。例如,计算过去一个世纪语言格局的变化速度就发展最快的语言而言,可能会产生与计算过去20年不同的结果。 当然,其中也存在着地区差异。例如,西班牙语在美国越来越重要,因为拉丁美洲和美国之间存在着本地化的移民模式。但这是否意味着西班牙语正在增长,或者仅仅是说西班牙语的人正在从一个地方迁移到另一个地方? 下面我将把所有这些都分开,从几个不同的角度来看待语言的发展。我们的目标是,希望能找到一个唯一的赢家,我们可以冠以世界上增长最快的语言。现在让我们一起来看吧? 人口的不断增长以及母语和第二语言使用者的增长 根据世界银行所提供的数据显示,地球人口正以每年1.1%的速度增长。并且在2020年达到了78亿。 这些年来,这一增长率一直在放缓,从1970年的2.1%稳步下降到目前的1.1%。然而,尽管速度较慢,人口也在持续增加。 这是语言发展的一个原因。很简单,用这种语言的人有很多。1970年,全球人口总数为37亿;自那时以来,这一数字已经翻了一番多。 即使每个人只会说一种语言,但是按照这样的规模继续增长,也会使得一些语言快速发展。然而,全球约43%的人口会说讲双语,其中有13%的人又会说三种语言,这进一步促进了语言的增长速度。 但这并不意味着所有的语言都在以同样的速度增长。恰恰相反。从政治紧张到宗教意识形态再到科技等各方面的因素,这一切都会影响语言的发展速度。有些语言是被故意压抑的,而另一些单单是因为世界发展太快以至于我们无法保护他们而逐渐消亡。 与此同时,其他语言的使用人数也在大幅增加,因此这些语言中有少数几种“主要”语言的使用人数正在增加,这样将会为广大的地区提供通用语言。 对未来几十年世界语言发展的预测 在我们更进一步深入研究有关世界上增长最快的语言的数据之前,让我们先来看看几个预测。 2050年说得最多的语言将会是什么?或者2100年说的最多的将会是什么语言?呃——,我们目前并不能精准的预测出在未来的几十年将会发生什么影响语言的发展,因为其中存在太多的不确定因素。然而,我们能做的就是对我们已有的人口数据和经济数据进行推断。 并使用engco语言预测模型进行预测,得出2050年前五大语言将是汉语,西班牙语,英语,印地语-乌尔都语和阿拉伯语。 然而,投资银行Natixis在2014年的一项研究预测,到2050年,世界上使用最多的语言将是法语,原因是基于法语在非洲国家的大量使用。 与此同时,语言学家乌尔里希·艾蒙进行了一项长达15年的研究,该研究表明在未来几年里,英语,汉语,西班牙语和法语将成为未来值得密切关注的四种语言。 此外,《华盛顿邮报》的数据分析显示,印地语,孟加拉语,乌尔都语和印度尼西亚语以及西班牙语,葡萄牙语,阿拉伯语和俄语在商界的重要性将会增加。 展望未来,那些在过去一个世纪占据主导地位的语言似乎很有可能继续发挥重要作用,尽管在79年的时间里,任何事情都是可能的,特别是随着技术的飞速发展。快进到2100年,我们仍然有可能听到英语,普通话,西班牙语和印地语正在全球各地。至于哪一种语言将是世界上增长最快的语言,或者哪一种语言将是这些语言中的任何一种,这就有点难以预测了。 世界上发展最快的10种语言 那么,在计算出哪些是世界上发展最快的语言时,这些数据说明了什么呢?这完全取决于我们如何处理这些数字。例如,世界上增长最快的语言是那些在说话人数量上增长最快的语言还是那些在百分比上增长最快的语言? 我们来看看这两种计算。 英文 如果我们观察说者人数的增长,不难发现英语是增长最快的语言。无论我们回顾过去十年,过去50年,甚至过去100年,都是如此。 从2011年到2021年,说英语的人数(请注意,我这里说的是讲英语的总人数,而不仅仅是说母语的人)从1054696408人增加到1300569350人。这一数字在十年内增加了245872942人,远远超过其他任何语言。 相比之下,排名第二的是汉语(普通话),同期增加了69877874人。与此同时,印度语使用者增加了64684736人。 回顾过去50年,我们可以看到一幅非常相似的画面。1971年至2021年间,英语使用者增加了523019976人,而汉语增加了276956436人和印地语187263950人 整个上个世纪也是如此。从1921年到2021年,全世界讲英语的人增加了894827855人,远远超过说汉语的人(增加了551162240人)和说印地语的人(增加了349660815人,排在第三位)。 从说话人数量来看,很明显,英语是过去100年来增长最快的语言,从1921年的405741495人上升到一个世纪后的1300569350人。 葡萄牙语 你有没有想过葡萄牙语会成为世界上发展最快的语言之一?葡萄牙语主要在巴西使用,但也在葡萄牙、莫桑比克、安哥拉和其他地方使用,从1921年的65064027人发展到今天的258003327人。 在过去的一个世纪里,演讲者人数增长了297%。从这个标准来看,葡萄牙语的增长速度超过了英语、汉语、印地语、西班牙语、法语、现代阿拉伯语、孟加拉语和俄语。 阿拉伯语 此时,阿拉伯语值得一提。尽管在增长率上与葡萄牙语没有完全跟上,但现代阿拉伯语肯定已经接近尾声。语言已从1921年的74157626人增长到一个世纪后的279200980人。这比以前增加了276%。 对于比较用语,英语使用者同期增长了221%,印地语使用者增长了118%,德语使用者增长了115%,法语使用者增长了113%,孟加拉语使用者增长了110%,汉语使用者增长了96%。 乌尔都语 从增长速度来看,在过去50年里增长最快的语言却出现了不同的结果:乌尔都语。 说乌尔都语的人数从1971年的112717278人增加到2021年的219737807人,增幅达95%,超过了英语、汉语、印地语、西班牙语、法语、现代阿拉伯语、孟加拉语、俄语、葡萄牙语、印度尼西亚语、德语和日语。 回顾过去十年,乌尔都语也成为世界上发展最快的语言。从2011年到2021年,它的演讲者总数增加了39%。 印尼语 印尼语在当地被称为印尼语(Bahasa Indonesia),在过去50年里,印尼语也是世界上增长最快的语言之一。从1971年的127635615人增加到2021年的228241973人,增长率为79%,这使得印尼在过去半个世纪的增长速度仅次于乌尔都语。 过去十年也是如此。乌尔都语在截至2021年的十年间增长了39%,印尼语以25%的增长率位居第二。 中文 撇开英语不谈,在过去10年、50年和100年中,哪种语言的说话人数量增长最快?这三个时期的答案都是普通话。在2011年到2021年间,美国的说话人数量(仅次于英语)增长第二大,在短短的十年内增长了69877874人,令人印象深刻。 在过去的50年里,这个数字上升到276956436人,而在过去的一个世纪里,讲中文的人数增加了551162240人,从1921年的577002424人增加到2021年的1128164664人 印地语 我觉得印地语在这里也值得特别提及,就其过去十年的增长而言。在说话人数量方面,印地语与汉语在过去几年的增长非常接近。2011年至2021年间,讲中文的人数增加了69877874人,讲印地语的人数增加了64684736人。 就百分比而言,这意味着在截至2021年的十年里,印地语的增长速度比汉语快,分别为11%和7%——尽管这两种语言的增幅都不及乌尔都语39%的增幅。 韩语 另一个有趣的竞争对手是韩国语。我把这个包括在内有两个原因。首先,Duolingo的第一份全球语言报告涵盖2019年10月至2020年9月期间,报告指出,根据其用户数据,全球增长最快的语言都是亚洲语言。印地语、韩语和日语都有很强的特色。 把韩国人包括进来的第二个原因是韩国人在大众文化舞台上的巨大增长。K-pop在全球范围内建立了一支追随者队伍,并继续以惊人的速度发展。正如《多林戈新闻》所指出的那样,这是韩国语学习快速增长背后的一个驱动因素。 去年我在《学习15种最好的语言》一文中也提到了韩国语,这绝非巧合。如果你当时没有抓到,现在可以点击下面的链接阅读。 更多阅读:2020年15种最适合学习的语言 西班牙语 在地区层面上,也有大量快速发展的语言。例如,看看美国增长最快的语言,西班牙语立即成为人们关注的焦点。 西班牙语在美国越来越重要,因为西班牙裔是美国人口增长最快的群体。从1980年到2015年,美国讲西班牙语的人数几乎翻了两番,从1100万人增加到4100多万人,而且讲西班牙语的人数还在继续上升。 以百分比计算,同期讲西班牙语的美国人口比例从5%增长到13%,因此被冠以美国增长最快的语言。 法语 在区域层面上,法语的发展也值得一提。非洲的语言格局正在发生变化,越来越多的人讲法语。目前,全世界讲法语人口的44%生活在撒哈拉以南非洲。然而,这一数字在未来几年将大幅上升,一些人预计到2050年将达到85%。 我上面提到的Duolingo报告也考察了法语在地区一级的增长,指出在过去一年中,在加拿大学习法语的人数显著增加。 全球语言格局的变化速度与此有何关系? 全球语言格局的变化速度具有很大的相关性。企业需要了解要围绕哪些语言制定战略,以及为什么要这样做。他们需要使用本地化服务来开拓新市场,以便利用全球化所提供的一切,但在这样做之前,他们需要知道他们将需要哪些语言。 在企业建立新的受众群的同时,个别学习者也受到不断变化的语言环境的影响。英语以及世界上其他主要语言和通用语的增长,意味着许多其他语言的使用者数量正在危险地减少。一些估计指出,到2100年,世界上7000种左右的语言中有一半已经灭绝。 结束 我希望你喜欢看世界上发展最快的语言。虽然英语的发展得到了广泛的认可,但我怀疑我所讲的一些语言可能让你感到惊讶。 总而言之,我已经看了: •过去10年,50年和100年中使用人数增长最快的语言 •在相同时间框架内按百分比增长的语言 •按学习者人数计算增长最快的语言 •一些在区域一级扩展最快的语言 你的语言被列入前10名了吗?或者你正在学习这些快速发展的语言之一?在下面留言分享你的想法。

以上中文文本为机器翻译,存在不同程度偏差和错误,请理解并参考英文原文阅读。

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